Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.61 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗66% · @1.61
Double chancePenarol or draw ✗88% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Penarol take on Racing Montevideo on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Racing Montevideo sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Boston River 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Progreso 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Penarol and 0.6 for Racing Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 66%, draw 21%, Racing Montevideo 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.61 – 66% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol66%fair 1.51 · @1.61
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.40
Racing Montevideo12%fair 8.12 · @5.70
2.49Expected goals
1.85Penarol xG
0.64Racing Montevideo xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.8 – 0.6 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
66%
1.51
1.61 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.52
–
Form
Penarol – last 6
WWWDWW
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
DWLWWD
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Racing Montevideo 12%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
