Value bet: Tucuman Central to win @ 3.75 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.33
Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Tucuman Central take on Sarmiento de La Banda on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Tucuman Central are 32nd with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Sarmiento de La Banda sit 13th on 25 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Tucuman Central's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Juventud Antoniana 1–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sarmiento de La Banda's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat San Martin Formosa 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sarmiento de La Banda arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Tucuman Central.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.8 for Tucuman Central and 1.2 for Sarmiento de La Banda. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tucuman Central 30%, draw 24%, Sarmiento de La Banda 47%.
Value angle: Tucuman Central to win at 3.75 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Tucuman Central 0–1 Sarmiento de La Banda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tucuman Central30%fair 3.37 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.90
Sarmiento de La Banda47%fair 2.14 · @2.05
1.99Expected goals
0.83Tucuman Central xG
1.16Sarmiento de La Banda xG
42%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Tucuman Central 0.8 – 1.2 Sarmiento de La Banda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento de La Banda to win✗
47%
2.14
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento de La Banda / FT Sarmiento de La Banda✗
What is the prediction for Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
On our numbers Tucuman Central have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sarmiento de La Banda 47%.
How many goals will there be in Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
Our predicted score is Tucuman Central 0–1 Sarmiento de La Banda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda?
Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
