Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga Mariners to win ✓66% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Mārupe vs Riga Mariners preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Liga sees Mārupe take on Riga Mariners on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Mārupe are 7th with 34 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Riga Mariners sit 3rd on 59 points (in the top four). A gap of 25 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mārupe's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with JFK Ventspils 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga Mariners's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Skanste 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Riga Mariners arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 June 2026, finished Riga Mariners 2–0 Mārupe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.1 for Mārupe and 2.3 for Riga Mariners. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Riga Mariners to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mārupe 1–2 Riga Mariners. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mārupe20%fair 5.09 · @4.00
Draw14%fair 7.12 · @4.33
Riga Mariners66%fair 1.51 · @1.57
3.39Expected goals
1.11Mārupe xG
2.28Riga Mariners xG
53%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–18%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Mārupe 1.1 – 2.3 Riga Mariners expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Our pick is Riga Mariners to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
On our numbers Mārupe have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Riga Mariners 66%.
How many goals will there be in Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Our predicted score is Mārupe 1–2 Riga Mariners, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Mārupe vs Riga Mariners (1. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
