Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Real San Joaquín to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultProvincial Ovalle to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.19
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín preview and prediction
The match
Provincial Ovalle host Real San Joaquín in the Segunda División on Sunday 21 June, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Diaguita. Provincial Ovalle are 14th with 6 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Real San Joaquín sit 9th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Provincial Ovalle's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Trasandino 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Provincial Ovalle and 1.1 for Real San Joaquín. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Provincial Ovalle 40%, draw 24%, Real San Joaquín 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Real San Joaquín to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Real San Joaquín. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Provincial Ovalle40%fair 2.47 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Real San Joaquín35%fair 2.84 · @3.20
2.28Expected goals
1.19Provincial Ovalle xG
1.09Real San Joaquín xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Provincial Ovalle 1.2 – 1.1 Real San Joaquín expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Provincial Ovalle to win✗
40%
2.47
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Provincial Ovalle / FT Provincial Ovalle✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.19
–
Form
Provincial Ovalle – last 5
DLDLL
8 Jun
vs Trasandino
1–1
D
30 May
@ Concón National
0–1
L
25 May
vs Municipal Salamanca
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Santiago City
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Trasandino
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Real San Joaquín – last 2
LD
7 Jun
vs Concón National
0–1
L
25 May
@ Santiago City
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Provincial Ovalle and Real San Joaquín.
What is the prediction for Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
On our numbers Provincial Ovalle have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real San Joaquín 35%.
How many goals will there be in Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Our predicted score is Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Real San Joaquín, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Diaguita.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
