Segunda División · ChileColchagua vs Provincial Osorno prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Provincial Osorno to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Colchagua 1.2 – 1.0 Provincial Osorno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Colchagua hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 35% for Provincial Osorno.
Colchagua have taken 2 points from their last 2 matches (0W 2D 0L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Provincial Osorno have 2 points from their last 2 (0W 2D 0L), averaging 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Colchagua, 1.0 for Provincial Osorno). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.27. For a bigger price, Provincial Osorno to win at 3.10 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Colchagua to win ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Colchagua / FT Colchagua ✗ | 22% | 4.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.40 | – |
Form
Colchagua – last 2
| 31 May | @ General Velásquez | 0–0 | D |
| 24 May | vs Santiago Morning | 1–1 | D |
Provincial Osorno – last 2
| 6 Jun | vs Linares Unido | 1–1 | D |
| 30 May | @ Santiago Morning | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colchagua and Provincial Osorno.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno?
On our numbers Colchagua have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Provincial Osorno 35%.
How many goals will there be in Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno?
Colchagua vs Provincial Osorno (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.