Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugal to win ✓68% · @1.20
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓86% · @1.03
Portugal vs Wales preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Nations League sees Portugal take on Wales on Thursday 24 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Portugal are 1st with 12 points from 4 games, while Wales sit 3rd on 3 points.
Form guide
Portugal's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Spain 0–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Wales's last 3: LDD Most recently they lost to Romania 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Portugal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portugal 68%, draw 18%, Wales 14%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugal to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.20. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugal68%fair 1.47 · @1.20
Draw18%fair 5.47 · @6.00
Wales14%fair 7.21 · @13.00
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugal to win✓
68%
1.47
1.20
Double chance
Portugal or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.03
Form
Portugal – last 6
LWDWDW
6 Jul
vs Spain
0–1
L
3 Jul
vs Croatia
2–1
W
28 Jun
@ Colombia
0–0
D
23 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
5–0
W
17 Jun
vs Congo DR
1–1
D
10 Jun
vs Nigeria
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wales – last 3
LDD
6 Jun
@ Romania
1–2
L
2 Jun
vs Ghana
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugal and Wales.
Our pick is Portugal to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Portugal vs Wales?
On our numbers Portugal have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Wales 14%.
When is Portugal vs Wales?
Portugal vs Wales (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Andorra1
Malta2
Netherlands1
Germany1
Serbia1
Greece2
Austria3
Israel1
Kosovo1
Rep. Of Ireland0
Liechtenstein0
Lithuania2