Value bet: Heilongjiang Lava Spring to win @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeilongjiang Lava Spring to win ✗50% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.64
Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring preview and prediction
The match
Heilongjiang Lava Spring travel to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre in the League One on Saturday 30 May (12:30 WAT) to face Meizhou Kejia. Meizhou Kejia are 15th with 16 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 14th on 28 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Meizhou Kejia's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Hebei Kungfu 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Dongguan United 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Meizhou Kejia and 1.5 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Heilongjiang Lava Spring to win at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Meizhou Kejia 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Meizhou Kejia28%fair 3.51 · @2.95
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.20
Heilongjiang Lava Spring50%fair 2.02 · @2.25
2.57Expected goals
1.06Meizhou Kejia xG
1.51Heilongjiang Lava Spring xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Meizhou Kejia 1.1 – 1.5 Heilongjiang Lava Spring expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heilongjiang Lava Spring to win✗
50%
2.02
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heilongjiang Lava Spring / FT Heilongjiang Lava Spring✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.64
–
Form
Meizhou Kejia – last 6
WLLLLW
24 May
@ Hebei Kungfu
1–0
W
16 May
@ Rizhao Yuqi
1–2
L
9 May
@ Nanjing City
0–2
L
3 May
vs Shenzhen Juniors
1–4
L
19 Apr
@ Guangzhou E-Power
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Dongguan United
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Heilongjiang Lava Spring – last 6
DLLDWD
23 May
@ Dongguan United
1–1
D
17 May
@ Shanghai Zetian
2–4
L
9 May
vs Changchun Yatai
2–3
L
2 May
vs Shaanxi Union
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Hebei Kungfu
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Nanjing City
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Meizhou Kejia and Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
What is the prediction for Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
On our numbers Meizhou Kejia have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 50%.
How many goals will there be in Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our predicted score is Meizhou Kejia 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Meizhou Kejia vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring (League One) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
