Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultYpiranga-RS to win ✓38% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.03
Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária preview and prediction
The match
Ypiranga-RS host Ferroviária in the Serie C on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Ypiranga-RS are 9th with 29 points from 19 games, while Ferroviária sit 1st on 11 points. A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ypiranga-RS's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Guarani Campinas 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Ferroviária's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Paysandu 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Ypiranga-RS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Ypiranga-RS and 1.2 for Ferroviária. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ypiranga-RS 1–1 Ferroviária. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ypiranga-RS38%fair 2.63 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Ferroviária38%fair 2.66 · @3.10
2.38Expected goals
1.19Ypiranga-RS xG
1.18Ferroviária xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ypiranga-RS 1.2 – 1.2 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ypiranga-RS to win✓
38%
2.63
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ypiranga-RS / FT Ypiranga-RS✗
21%
4.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.03
–
Form
Ypiranga-RS – last 6
DWWLWD
18 Aug
@ Guarani Campinas
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs Floresta
4–1
W
26 Jul
vs Barra
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Maranhão
1–2
L
5 Jul
vs Paysandu
1–0
W
29 Jun
vs Confiança
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ferroviária – last 6
WDDWLL
18 Aug
vs Paysandu
4–0
W
8 Aug
@ Figueirense
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Maranhão
0–0
D
12 Jul
@ Ituano
3–1
W
5 Jul
vs Caxias
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ypiranga-RS and Ferroviária.
What is the prediction for Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers Ypiranga-RS have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ferroviária 38%.
How many goals will there be in Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is Ypiranga-RS 1–1 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária?
Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
