Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: AO Itabaiana to win @ 3.55 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMaranhão to win ✓46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗67% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.28
Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana preview and prediction
The match
AO Itabaiana travel to face Maranhão in the Serie C on Sunday 23 August (22:30 WAT). Maranhão are 12th with 27 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while AO Itabaiana sit 19th on 17 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Maranhão's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Santa Cruz 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AO Itabaiana's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Barra 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Maranhão and 0.8 for AO Itabaiana. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maranhão 46%, draw 24%, AO Itabaiana 30%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.55.
Value angle: AO Itabaiana to win at 3.55 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Maranhão 1–0 AO Itabaiana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maranhão46%fair 2.16 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.95
AO Itabaiana30%fair 3.31 · @3.55
1.96Expected goals
1.13Maranhão xG
0.83AO Itabaiana xG
47%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Maranhão 1.1 – 0.8 AO Itabaiana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maranhão to win✓
46%
2.16
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maranhão / FT Maranhão✓
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.28
–
Form
Maranhão – last 6
WWDWLD
15 Aug
@ Santa Cruz
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Brusque
2–1
W
25 Jul
@ Ferroviária
0–0
D
12 Jul
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Inter De Limeira
0–1
L
29 Jun
@ Ituano
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
AO Itabaiana – last 6
LLDWWW
16 Aug
@ Barra
0–1
L
9 Aug
vs Caxias
0–2
L
25 Jul
@ Confiança
1–1
D
13 Jul
vs Brusque
1–0
W
7 Jul
@ Amazonas
2–0
W
27 Jun
vs Ferroviária
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maranhão and AO Itabaiana.
What is the prediction for Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana?
On our numbers Maranhão have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AO Itabaiana 30%.
How many goals will there be in Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana?
Our predicted score is Maranhão 1–0 AO Itabaiana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana?
Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
