Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Caxias to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✗55% · @1.95
Double chanceCaxias or draw ✗82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.83
Caxias vs Figueirense preview and prediction
The match
Figueirense travel to Estadio Francisco Stedile in the Serie C on Sunday 16 August (20:00 WAT) to face Caxias. Caxias are 14th with 25 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Figueirense sit 11th on 28 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Caxias's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat AO Itabaiana 2–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Figueirense's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Ferroviária 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Caxias and 0.7 for Figueirense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Caxias to win at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Caxias 1–0 Figueirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caxias55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.00
Figueirense18%fair 5.46 · @3.80
2.12Expected goals
1.43Caxias xG
0.69Figueirense xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.4 – 0.7 Figueirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Caxias or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.83
–
Form
Caxias – last 6
WLDWDD
9 Aug
@ AO Itabaiana
2–0
W
26 Jul
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs Floresta
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Figueirense – last 6
DWDLDD
8 Aug
vs Ferroviária
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Santa Cruz
1–0
W
14 Jul
vs Volta Redonda
0–0
D
6 Jul
@ Brusque
1–3
L
28 Jun
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
21 Jun
@ Ituano
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Figueirense.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Caxias vs Figueirense?
On our numbers Caxias have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Figueirense 18%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Figueirense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Figueirense?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–0 Figueirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Figueirense?
Caxias vs Figueirense (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
