Value bet: Caxias to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.46
Caxias vs Botafogo PB preview and prediction
The match
Botafogo PB travel to Estadio Francisco Stedile in the Serie C on Sunday 26 July (22:30 WAT) to face Caxias. Caxias are 14th with 25 points from 19 games, while Botafogo PB sit 4th on 5 points. A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caxias's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Floresta 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Botafogo PB's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Confiança 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Botafogo PB arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Caxias and 0.8 for Botafogo PB. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Caxias to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Caxias 1–0 Botafogo PB. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caxias60%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.35
Botafogo PB21%fair 4.80 · @3.80
2.31Expected goals
1.56Caxias xG
0.75Botafogo PB xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.6 – 0.8 Botafogo PB expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✗
60%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.46
–
Form
Caxias – last 6
DWDDLW
11 Jul
vs Floresta
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
13 Jun
@ Guarani Campinas
1–2
L
30 May
vs Ituano
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Botafogo PB – last 6
WWWWDW
12 Jul
vs Confiança
2–0
W
6 Jul
@ Anápolis
2–0
W
1 Jul
vs Brusque
2–0
W
20 Jun
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
16 Jun
@ Ypiranga-RS
1–1
D
30 May
vs Maringá
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Botafogo PB.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Caxias vs Botafogo PB?
On our numbers Caxias have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Botafogo PB 21%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Botafogo PB?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Botafogo PB?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–0 Botafogo PB, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Botafogo PB?
Caxias vs Botafogo PB (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
