Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultItuano to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.40
Ituano vs Ferroviária preview and prediction
The match
Ituano host Ferroviária in the Serie C on Sunday 12 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT). Ituano are 15th with 22 points from 19 games, while Ferroviária sit 1st on 11 points.
Form guide
Ituano's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Santa Cruz 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferroviária's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Caxias 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Ferroviária arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 April 2026, finished Ferroviária 1–1 Ituano. Across their last 2 meetings Ituano have won 0, Ferroviária 1, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Ituano and 1.0 for Ferroviária. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Ituano 1–0 Ferroviária. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ituano39%fair 2.53 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @2.95
Ferroviária35%fair 2.86 · @3.10
2.08Expected goals
1.09Ituano xG
1.00Ferroviária xG
53%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.1 – 1.0 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ituano vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers Ituano have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ferroviária 35%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is Ituano 1–0 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Ferroviária?
Ituano vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
