Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✓38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.53
Caxias vs Paysandu preview and prediction
The match
Caxias host Paysandu in the Serie C on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Francisco Stedile. Caxias are 14th with 25 points from 19 games, while Paysandu sit 4th on 5 points. A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caxias's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with São Bernardo 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Paysandu's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Vasco DA Gama 2–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Caxias and 1.1 for Paysandu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caxias 38%, draw 26%, Paysandu 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Paysandu to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Caxias 1–1 Paysandu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caxias38%fair 2.66 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
Paysandu37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
2.28Expected goals
1.15Caxias xG
1.13Paysandu xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.1 – 1.1 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✓
38%
2.66
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✓
20%
4.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.53
–
Form
Caxias – last 6
DWWLWW
7 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
1 May
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
28 Apr
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Avai
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 6
DWWLWL
13 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–2
D
6 May
@ Águia de Marabá
5–1
W
29 Apr
@ Trem
3–0
W
22 Apr
vs Vasco DA Gama
0–2
L
15 Apr
vs Independência
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Nacional AM
0–7
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Paysandu.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Caxias vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Caxias have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Paysandu 37%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Paysandu?
Caxias vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
