Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Brusque to win @ 3.50 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✓38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.39
Ferroviária vs Brusque preview and prediction
The match
Brusque travel to Arena Fonte Luminosa in the Serie C on Sunday 17 May (20:00 WAT) to face Ferroviária. Ferroviária are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Brusque sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Juventus 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brusque's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Ypiranga-RS 3–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Brusque arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Ferroviária and 1.1 for Brusque. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 37%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Brusque to win at 3.50 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–1 Brusque. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária38%fair 2.61 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.95
Brusque36%fair 2.77 · @3.50
2.28Expected goals
1.16Ferroviária xG
1.12Brusque xG
50%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.2 – 1.1 Brusque expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✓
38%
2.61
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.39
–
Form
Ferroviária – last 6
LDDDWD
13 May
vs Juventus
1–2
L
7 May
@ Juventus
0–0
D
30 Apr
vs Ituano
1–1
D
28 Apr
vs Guarani Campinas
2–2
D
23 Apr
@ Ituano
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Floresta
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Brusque – last 3
WWL
10 May
vs Ypiranga-RS
3–0
W
21 Apr
@ Maringá
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Brusque.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Brusque?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Brusque 36%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Brusque?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–1 Brusque, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Brusque?
Ferroviária vs Brusque (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
