Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 1.88 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓63% · @1.88
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.14
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Racing Montevideo take on Cerro on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 13:45 (WAT) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. Racing Montevideo are 6th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Cerro sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Racing Montevideo's last 4: LWWD Most recently they lost to Boston River 0–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Cerro's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Boston River 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Racing Montevideo and 0.7 for Cerro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Montevideo 63%, draw 22%, Cerro 15%.
Safer route: Racing Montevideo or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Racing Montevideo to win at 1.88 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Racing Montevideo or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Racing Montevideo 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Montevideo63%fair 1.58 · @1.88
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.10
Cerro15%fair 6.69 · @4.30
2.56Expected goals
1.82Racing Montevideo xG
0.74Cerro xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.8 – 0.7 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
63%
1.58
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Half-time result
Racing Montevideo ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.14
–
Form
Racing Montevideo – last 4
LWWD
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 3
DDL
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Cerro.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cerro 15%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
