Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗64% · @1.56
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
Penarol vs Danubio preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Danubio in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Danubio sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Penarol's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Club Nacional 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Penarol and 0.7 for Danubio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 64%, draw 22%, Danubio 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Danubio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol64%fair 1.56 · @1.56
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.60
Danubio14%fair 7.15 · @5.90
2.58Expected goals
1.85Penarol xG
0.73Danubio xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.7 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
64%
1.56
1.56
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.14
–
Form
Penarol – last 3
WWL
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Danubio – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Danubio.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penarol vs Danubio?
On our numbers Penarol have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Danubio 14%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Danubio?
Penarol vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
