Value bet: Albion FC to win @ 2.45 – our chance 43% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlbion FC to win43% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 11.86
Progreso vs Albion FC preview and prediction
The match
Progreso host Albion FC in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 7 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Parque Abraham Paladino. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Albion FC sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Progreso and 1.3 for Albion FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Progreso 33%, draw 23%, Albion FC 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Albion FC to win at 2.45 – 43% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Albion FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso33%fair 3.01 · @2.88
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Albion FC43%fair 2.30 · @2.45
2.39Expected goals
1.09Progreso xG
1.30Albion FC xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.3 Albion FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Albion FC to win
43%
2.30
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Albion FC / FT Albion FC
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
11.86
–
Form
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Albion FC – last 2
LW
28 Feb
vs Racing Montevideo
1–3
L
16 Feb
vs Cerro
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Albion FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Progreso vs Albion FC?
On our numbers Progreso have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Albion FC 43%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Albion FC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Albion FC?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Albion FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Albion FC?
Progreso vs Albion FC (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
