Value bet: Shanghai Shenhua to win @ 2.84 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBeijing Guoan to win ✗41% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.29
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua preview and prediction
The match
Shanghai Shenhua travel to Beijing Workers' Stadium in the Super League on Saturday 21 March (08:30 WAT) to face Beijing Guoan. Beijing Guoan are 3rd with 50 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Shanghai Shenhua sit 7th on 40 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Beijing Guoan's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Shandong Luneng 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shanghai Shenhua's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Hangzhou Greentown 1–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Beijing Guoan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.8 for Beijing Guoan and 1.8 for Shanghai Shenhua. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations.
Value angle: Shanghai Shenhua to win at 2.84 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Beijing Guoan 2–1 Shanghai Shenhua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Beijing Guoan41%fair 2.45 · @2.12
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.75
Shanghai Shenhua38%fair 2.64 · @2.84
3.59Expected goals
1.83Beijing Guoan xG
1.76Shanghai Shenhua xG
67%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–05%
3–15%
From our goals model: Beijing Guoan 1.8 – 1.8 Shanghai Shenhua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beijing Guoan to win✗
41%
2.45
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.77
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
36%
2.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Beijing Guoan / FT Beijing Guoan✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.29
–
Form
Beijing Guoan – last 3
LWW
14 Mar
@ Shandong Luneng
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Wuhan Three Towns
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ SHANGHAI SIPG
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Shanghai Shenhua – last 3
DWL
14 Mar
@ Hangzhou Greentown
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs Dalian Zhixing
5–3
W
17 Feb
@ Buriram United
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua.
What is the prediction for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
On our numbers Beijing Guoan have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Shanghai Shenhua 38%.
How many goals will there be in Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our predicted score is Beijing Guoan 2–1 Shanghai Shenhua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 08:30 (West Africa Time) at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
