Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.70 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultDanubio to win47% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.77
Danubio vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Danubio take on Progreso on Saturday 28 February, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT). Danubio are 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Danubio and 1.0 for Progreso. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Danubio 47%, draw 22%, Progreso 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Progreso to win at 3.70 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Danubio 1–0 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio47%fair 2.14 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
Progreso31%fair 3.21 · @3.70
2.29Expected goals
1.31Danubio xG
0.99Progreso xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.3 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win
47%
2.14
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.77
–
Form
Danubio – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Progreso.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Danubio vs Progreso?
On our numbers Danubio have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progreso 31%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Progreso?
Danubio vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
