Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoston River to win ✗44% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.66
Cerro vs Boston River preview and prediction
The match
Cerro host Boston River in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 28 February, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Troccoli. Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Boston River sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Cerro and 1.1 for Boston River. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 32%, draw 24%, Boston River 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Cerro 0–1 Boston River. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro32%fair 3.11 · @3.15
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.86
Boston River44%fair 2.28 · @2.36
1.97Expected goals
0.87Cerro xG
1.10Boston River xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.9 – 1.1 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boston River to win✗
44%
2.28
2.36
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boston River / FT Boston River✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.66
–
Form
Cerro – last 2
DL
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Boston River – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Boston River.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Cerro vs Boston River?
On our numbers Cerro have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Boston River 44%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Boston River?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–1 Boston River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Boston River?
Cerro vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
