Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.46 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.46Odds
2
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.68
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo preview and prediction
The match
Defensor Sporting host Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Cerro Largo sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Defensor Sporting and 1.0 for Cerro Largo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensor Sporting 44%, draw 22%, Cerro Largo 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Cerro Largo to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.46. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Cerro Largo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting44%fair 2.26 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Cerro Largo34%fair 2.98 · @3.25
2.25Expected goals
1.23Defensor Sporting xG
1.02Cerro Largo xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.2 – 1.0 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✓
44%
2.26
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.46
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.68
–
Form
Defensor Sporting – last 1
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.46.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cerro Largo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
