Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.23
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Vila Nova take on Novorizontino on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT). Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Novorizontino sit 1st on 70 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Nautico Recife 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Novorizontino's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 5–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 June 2026, finished Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Vila Nova and 1.3 for Novorizontino. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 35%, draw 26%, Novorizontino 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Novorizontino to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Novorizontino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova35%fair 2.89 · @2.62
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.90
Novorizontino40%fair 2.52 · @2.70
2.48Expected goals
1.19Vila Nova xG
1.29Novorizontino xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.2 – 1.3 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Novorizontino 40%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
