Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✓41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.71
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Nautico Recife take on Vila Nova on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 21:30 (WAT). Nautico Recife are 15th with 46 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nautico Recife's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Novorizontino 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Vila Nova's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Cuiaba 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 June 2026, finished Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Nautico Recife and 1.3 for Vila Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nautico Recife 34%, draw 25%, Vila Nova 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Vila Nova to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Nautico Recife 1–1 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nautico Recife34%fair 2.95 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
Vila Nova41%fair 2.45 · @2.70
2.41Expected goals
1.13Nautico Recife xG
1.28Vila Nova xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nautico Recife 1.1 – 1.3 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Nautico Recife have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vila Nova 41%.
How many goals will there be in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Nautico Recife 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
