Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Goianiense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Goianiense to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Goianiense to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceAtletico Goianiense or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.92
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife travel to Estadio Antonio Accioly in the Serie B on Sunday 11 October (20:10 WAT) to face Atletico Goianiense. Atletico Goianiense are 8th with 58 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Sport Recife sit 9th on 55 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico Goianiense's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to CRB 1–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sport Recife's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat São Bernardo 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 June 2026, finished Sport Recife 1–1 Atletico Goianiense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Atletico Goianiense and 0.6 for Sport Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico Goianiense 65%, draw 21%, Sport Recife 14%.
Safer route: Atletico Goianiense or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Atletico Goianiense to win at 1.75 – 65% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Goianiense or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Sport Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Goianiense65%fair 1.54 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.40
Sport Recife14%fair 7.26 · @4.20
2.31Expected goals
1.70Atletico Goianiense xG
0.61Sport Recife xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Atletico Goianiense 1.7 – 0.6 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Our pick is Atletico Goianiense or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Atletico Goianiense have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sport Recife 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 20:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Accioly.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
