Value bet: Cuiaba to win @ 3.75 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✗46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.92
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Vila Nova take on Cuiaba on Thursday 8 October, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Botafogo SP 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cuiaba's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 June 2026, finished Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Vila Nova and 0.9 for Cuiaba. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 46%, draw 24%, Cuiaba 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Cuiaba to win at 3.75 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.93, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Cuiaba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova46%fair 2.18 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.90
Cuiaba30%fair 3.29 · @3.75
2.13Expected goals
1.22Vila Nova xG
0.91Cuiaba xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.2 – 0.9 Cuiaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cuiaba 30%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Cuiaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
