Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Recife to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceSport Recife or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.34
Sport Recife vs Operario-PR preview and prediction
The match
Operario-PR travel to Ilha do Retiro in the Serie B on Saturday 18 July (20:00 WAT) to face Sport Recife. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Operario-PR sit 10th on 54 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Botafogo SP 3–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Operario-PR's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Novorizontino 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Operario-PR arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Sport Recife and 0.7 for Operario-PR. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 58%, draw 25%, Operario-PR 16%.
Safer route: Sport Recife or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Sport Recife to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sport Recife or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sport Recife 1–0 Operario-PR. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife58%fair 1.71 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.40
Operario-PR16%fair 6.13 · @4.00
2.32Expected goals
1.60Sport Recife xG
0.72Operario-PR xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.6 – 0.7 Operario-PR expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✗
58%
1.71
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Sport Recife or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.34
–
Form
Sport Recife – last 6
DLLDDD
11 Jul
vs Botafogo SP
3–3
D
4 Jul
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
1–2
L
19 Jun
vs Atletico Goianiense
1–1
D
14 Jun
@ São Bernardo
0–0
D
11 Jun
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Operario-PR – last 6
WWWWLW
12 Jul
vs Novorizontino
2–1
W
8 Jul
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs America Mineiro
1–0
W
21 Jun
@ Goias
3–0
W
14 Jun
@ Botafogo SP
1–2
L
6 Jun
vs Juventude
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Operario-PR.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Operario-PR?
Our pick is Sport Recife or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Operario-PR?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Operario-PR 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Operario-PR?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Operario-PR?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–0 Operario-PR, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Operario-PR?
Sport Recife vs Operario-PR (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
