Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCriciuma to win ✓63% · @1.69
Double chanceCriciuma or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.15
Criciuma vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
Vila Nova travel to Estádio Heriberto Hülse in the Serie B on Saturday 18 July (20:00 WAT) to face Criciuma. Criciuma are 4th with 62 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Criciuma's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 2–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Juventude 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Criciuma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Criciuma and 0.7 for Vila Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Criciuma 63%, draw 19%, Vila Nova 18%.
Safer route: Criciuma or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Criciuma 1–0 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Criciuma63%fair 1.60 · @1.69
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.50
Vila Nova18%fair 5.57 · @5.25
2.30Expected goals
1.62Criciuma xG
0.68Vila Nova xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Criciuma 1.6 – 0.7 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Criciuma to win✓
63%
1.60
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Criciuma or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Criciuma / FT Criciuma✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.15
–
Form
Criciuma – last 6
WWWWDW
9 Jul
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Sport Recife
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
24 Jun
@ America Mineiro
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Ceara
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Londrina
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
LWLWLW
10 Jul
@ Juventude
0–1
L
6 Jul
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Criciuma and Vila Nova.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Criciuma have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vila Nova 18%.
How many goals will there be in Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Criciuma 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Criciuma vs Vila Nova?
Criciuma vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
