Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGoias to win ✓61% · @1.71
Double chanceGoias or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Ponte Preta vs Goias preview and prediction
The match
Goias travel to Moisés Lucarelli in the Serie B on Saturday 18 July (20:00 WAT) to face Ponte Preta. Ponte Preta are 20th with 15 points from 37 games (in the bottom three), while Goias sit 7th on 58 points (in the top half). A gap of 43 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ponte Preta's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Criciuma 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goias's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with CRB 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.8 for Ponte Preta and 1.7 for Goias. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 52% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ponte Preta 0–1 Goias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponte Preta18%fair 5.55 · @5.20
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @3.45
Goias61%fair 1.65 · @1.71
2.43Expected goals
0.76Ponte Preta xG
1.67Goias xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Ponte Preta 0.8 – 1.7 Goias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Goias to win✓
61%
1.65
1.71
Double chance
Goias or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Goias / FT Goias✓
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.78
–
Form
Ponte Preta – last 6
LLLLLL
9 Jul
vs Criciuma
1–2
L
3 Jul
@ Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
28 Jun
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–2
L
23 Jun
vs Novorizontino
0–2
L
14 Jun
@ Juventude
0–3
L
9 Jun
vs Cuiaba
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Goias – last 6
DWWLDL
12 Jul
@ CRB
2–2
D
5 Jul
vs Ceara
2–0
W
28 Jun
@ Nautico Recife
1–0
W
21 Jun
vs Operario-PR
0–3
L
14 Jun
@ Athletic Club
1–1
D
11 Jun
vs Novorizontino
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponte Preta and Goias.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ponte Preta vs Goias?
On our numbers Ponte Preta have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Goias 61%.
How many goals will there be in Ponte Preta vs Goias?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponte Preta vs Goias?
Our predicted score is Ponte Preta 0–1 Goias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ponte Preta vs Goias?
Ponte Preta vs Goias (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Moisés Lucarelli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
