Value bet: Cuiaba to win @ 3.30 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCuiaba to win ✗38% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.88
São Bernardo vs Cuiaba preview and prediction
The match
Cuiaba travel to Estádio Primeiro de Maio in the Serie B on Sunday 12 July (20:00 WAT) to face São Bernardo. São Bernardo are 11th with 52 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Vila Nova 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cuiaba's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat America Mineiro 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cuiaba arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for São Bernardo and 1.0 for Cuiaba. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 36%, draw 26%, Cuiaba 38%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Cuiaba to win at 3.30 – 38% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: São Bernardo 0–0 Cuiaba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo36%fair 2.75 · @2.36
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.92
Cuiaba38%fair 2.65 · @3.30
1.88Expected goals
0.93São Bernardo xG
0.95Cuiaba xG
47%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 0.9 – 1.0 Cuiaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cuiaba to win✗
38%
2.65
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
1.12
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.88
–
Form
São Bernardo – last 6
LLLDWD
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ CRB
3–2
W
31 May
vs Novorizontino
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cuiaba – last 6
WDLWWW
3 Jul
vs America Mineiro
1–0
W
26 Jun
vs Londrina
2–2
D
21 Jun
@ Avai
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Vila Nova
1–0
W
9 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs CRB
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Cuiaba.
What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cuiaba 38%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 0–0 Cuiaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?
São Bernardo vs Cuiaba (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
