Value bet: Avai to win @ 2.86 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAvai to win ✓40% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.91
Avai vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
Avai host Nautico Recife in the Serie B on Sunday 12 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estádio da Ressacada. Avai are 17th with 40 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Avai's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Botafogo SP 1–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Nautico Recife's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Juventude 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Avai arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Avai and 1.2 for Nautico Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Avai to win at 2.86 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Avai 1–1 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avai40%fair 2.50 · @2.86
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
Nautico Recife34%fair 2.91 · @2.60
2.43Expected goals
1.27Avai xG
1.16Nautico Recife xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Avai 1.3 – 1.2 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avai to win✓
40%
2.50
2.86 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avai / FT Avai✓
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.91
–
Form
Avai – last 6
LLWLLW
6 Jul
@ Botafogo SP
1–3
L
28 Jun
@ Athletic Club
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
16 Jun
@ Londrina
2–3
L
11 Jun
@ Ceara
1–2
L
4 Jun
vs Chapecoense-sc
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
DLLDLL
6 Jul
vs Juventude
0–0
D
28 Jun
vs Goias
0–1
L
20 Jun
@ Vila Nova
3–4
L
14 Jun
@ Novorizontino
2–2
D
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avai and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Avai vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Avai have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nautico Recife 34%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Avai 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Avai vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Ressacada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
