Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 3.95 – our chance 30% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✓48% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.34
Vila Nova vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
Vila Nova host São Bernardo in the Serie B on Monday 6 July, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while São Bernardo sit 11th on 52 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Novorizontino 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
São Bernardo's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Criciuma 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Vila Nova and 1.0 for São Bernardo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 48%, draw 22%, São Bernardo 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: São Bernardo to win at 3.95 – 30% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova48%fair 2.09 · @1.97
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.25
São Bernardo30%fair 3.32 · @3.95
2.40Expected goals
1.38Vila Nova xG
1.01São Bernardo xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.4 – 1.0 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
48%
2.09
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.34
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
LWLWWW
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
LLDWDW
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ CRB
3–2
W
31 May
vs Novorizontino
1–1
D
24 May
@ Atletico Goianiense
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and São Bernardo 30%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Vila Nova vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 6 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
