Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 3.05 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗39% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.70
São Bernardo vs Sport Recife preview and prediction
The match
São Bernardo host Sport Recife in the Serie B on Sunday 14 June, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio. São Bernardo are 11th with 52 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Sport Recife sit 9th on 55 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat CRB 3–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sport Recife's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Athletic Club 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for São Bernardo and 1.1 for Sport Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 39%, draw 24%, Sport Recife 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Sport Recife to win at 3.05 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: São Bernardo 1–1 Sport Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo39%fair 2.57 · @2.36
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Sport Recife37%fair 2.73 · @3.05
2.34Expected goals
1.19São Bernardo xG
1.15Sport Recife xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.2 – 1.1 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
39%
2.57
2.36
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.70
–
Form
São Bernardo – last 6
WDWWDD
7 Jun
@ CRB
3–2
W
31 May
vs Novorizontino
1–1
D
24 May
@ Atletico Goianiense
1–0
W
12 May
@ Londrina
3–1
W
7 May
vs Caxias
1–1
D
30 Apr
@ Tombense
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sport Recife – last 6
DWLWWL
11 Jun
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
31 May
vs Nautico Recife
2–0
W
28 May
vs Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
24 May
@ Juventude
1–0
W
21 May
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
18 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Sport Recife.
What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Sport Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sport Recife 37%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Sport Recife?
São Bernardo vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
