Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 3.55 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.19
Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
Nautico Recife travel to Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in the Serie B on Sunday 14 June (23:00 WAT) to face Novorizontino. Novorizontino are 1st with 70 points from 37 games (top of the table), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Novorizontino's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Goias 4–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nautico Recife's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Fortaleza EC 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for Novorizontino and 1.1 for Nautico Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Nautico Recife to win at 3.55 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Novorizontino 1–1 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novorizontino46%fair 2.17 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Nautico Recife32%fair 3.15 · @3.55
2.40Expected goals
1.35Novorizontino xG
1.05Nautico Recife xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.4 – 1.1 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
46%
2.17
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.19
–
Form
Novorizontino – last 6
WDDLDW
11 Jun
@ Goias
4–0
W
31 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
27 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
20 May
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
17 May
@ Cuiaba
0–0
D
10 May
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
LLWWLW
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nautico Recife 32%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
