Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 3.75 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCuiaba to win ✓43% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.55
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Cuiaba take on Vila Nova on Sunday 14 June, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Arena Pantanal. Cuiaba are 13th with 47 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cuiaba's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Vila Nova's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Botafogo SP 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for Cuiaba and 0.9 for Vila Nova. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cuiaba 43%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Vila Nova to win at 3.75 – 33% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cuiaba43%fair 2.33 · @2.18
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.90
Vila Nova33%fair 3.03 · @3.75
1.94Expected goals
1.07Cuiaba xG
0.88Vila Nova xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 1.1 – 0.9 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cuiaba to win✓
43%
2.33
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.55
–
Form
Cuiaba – last 6
WWLDLD
9 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs CRB
2–0
W
22 May
@ Nautico Recife
0–1
L
17 May
vs Novorizontino
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WWWWDW
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Vila Nova.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 33%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
