Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSport Recife to win ✓39% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.04
Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Sport Recife take on Nautico Recife on Sunday 31 May, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Ilha do Retiro. Sport Recife are 9th with 55 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sport Recife's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Fortaleza EC 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nautico Recife's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Cuiaba 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nautico Recife arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Sport Recife and 1.2 for Nautico Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sport Recife 39%, draw 25%, Nautico Recife 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Nautico Recife to win at 3.25 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Sport Recife 1–1 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sport Recife39%fair 2.59 · @2.32
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
Nautico Recife36%fair 2.78 · @3.25
2.41Expected goals
1.23Sport Recife xG
1.18Nautico Recife xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.2 – 1.2 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✓
39%
2.59
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✓
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.04
–
Form
Sport Recife – last 6
LWWLWL
28 May
vs Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
24 May
@ Juventude
1–0
W
21 May
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
18 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
7 May
vs ASA
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 5
WWLWW
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santa Cruz
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nautico Recife 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
