Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 3.40 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAmerica Mineiro to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.33
America Mineiro vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
Vila Nova travel to Arena Independência in the Serie B on Sunday 24 May (22:30 WAT) to face America Mineiro. America Mineiro are 19th with 29 points from 37 games (in the bottom three), while Vila Nova sit 3rd on 66 points (in the top four). A gap of 37 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
America Mineiro's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Cianorte 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Vila Nova's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Avai 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for America Mineiro and 1.2 for Vila Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: America Mineiro 40%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Vila Nova to win at 3.40 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: America Mineiro 1–1 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
America Mineiro40%fair 2.48 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Vila Nova36%fair 2.82 · @3.40
2.49Expected goals
1.30America Mineiro xG
1.20Vila Nova xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: America Mineiro 1.3 – 1.2 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
America Mineiro to win✗
40%
2.48
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT America Mineiro / FT America Mineiro✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.33
–
Form
America Mineiro – last 6
WLLLWD
7 May
vs Cianorte
3–2
W
4 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
29 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
25 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Tombense
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WDWDDW
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America Mineiro and Vila Nova.
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 36%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is America Mineiro 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
America Mineiro vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Independência.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
