Value bet: Avai to win @ 3.85 – our chance 30% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVila Nova to win ✓48% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.84
Vila Nova vs Avai preview and prediction
The match
Avai travel to Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga in the Serie B on Sunday 17 May (22:00 WAT) to face Vila Nova. Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Avai sit 17th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Athletic Club 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Avai's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for Vila Nova and 1.1 for Avai. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 48%, draw 22%, Avai 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Avai to win at 3.85 – 30% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Avai. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova48%fair 2.09 · @1.97
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.35
Avai30%fair 3.30 · @3.85
2.56Expected goals
1.47Vila Nova xG
1.10Avai xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.5 – 1.1 Avai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
48%
2.09
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.84
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
DWDDWD
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avai – last 6
WWLWLD
7 May
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Ponte Preta
1–2
L
16 Apr
vs Caxias
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Operario-PR
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Avai.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Avai?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Avai 30%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Avai?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Avai?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Avai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Avai?
Vila Nova vs Avai (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
