Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗37% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.08
Cuiaba vs Novorizontino preview and prediction
The match
Cuiaba host Novorizontino in the Serie B on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Arena Pantanal. Cuiaba are 13th with 47 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while Novorizontino sit 1st on 70 points (top of the table). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cuiaba's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Anápolis 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Novorizontino's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Botafogo SP 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Novorizontino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Cuiaba and 1.0 for Novorizontino. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Value angle: Novorizontino to win at 3.25 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Cuiaba 0–0 Novorizontino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cuiaba37%fair 2.73 · @2.42
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.86
Novorizontino37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
1.92Expected goals
0.96Cuiaba xG
0.97Novorizontino xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–114%
1–014%
1–114%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 1.0 – 1.0 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
37%
2.69
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.08
–
Form
Cuiaba – last 6
LDLLDL
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Porto Vitória
2–3
L
8 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Fortaleza EC
0–0
D
28 Mar
@ Gama
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Novorizontino – last 6
WWLLWD
10 May
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
7 May
@ Volta Redonda
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Avai
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Athletic Club
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Operario-PR
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Novorizontino.
What is the prediction for Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Novorizontino 37%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 0–0 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Cuiaba vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
