Changwon City vs Busan Transportation prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Changwon City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Changwon City to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChangwon City to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceChangwon City or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.26
Changwon City vs Busan Transportation preview and prediction
The match
Busan Transportation travel to face Changwon City in the K3 League on Saturday 11 April (06:00 WAT). Changwon City are 11th with 30 points from 26 games (in the bottom half), while Busan Transportation sit 4th on 43 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Changwon City's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat Jeonbuk Motors II 3–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Busan Transportation's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Yangpyeong 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Changwon City and 0.5 for Busan Transportation. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Changwon City 62%, draw 25%, Busan Transportation 13%.
Safer route: Changwon City or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Changwon City to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Changwon City or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Changwon City 1–0 Busan Transportation. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Changwon City62%fair 1.61 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.10
Busan Transportation13%fair 7.74 · @3.90
2.10Expected goals
1.55Changwon City xG
0.55Busan Transportation xG
49%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Changwon City 1.6 – 0.5 Busan Transportation expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Changwon City to win✗
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Changwon City or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Changwon City / FT Changwon City✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.26
–
Form
Changwon City – last 4
WLLW
5 Apr
@ Jeonbuk Motors II
3–2
W
29 Mar
@ Chuncheon
0–2
L
21 Mar
vs Yeoju Sejong
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Dangjin Citizen
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Busan Transportation – last 5
DLDWW
5 Apr
vs Yangpyeong
0–0
D
28 Mar
vs Siheung Citizen
1–2
L
21 Mar
vs Daejeon Korail
0–0
D
14 Mar
@ Gyeongju HNP
3–2
W
7 Mar
vs Pocheon
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Changwon City and Busan Transportation.
What is the prediction for Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?
Our pick is Changwon City or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?
On our numbers Changwon City have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Busan Transportation 13%.
How many goals will there be in Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?
Our predicted score is Changwon City 1–0 Busan Transportation, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?
Changwon City vs Busan Transportation (K3 League) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
