Value bet: Flora II to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlora II to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.82
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.77
Flora II vs Elva preview and prediction
The match
Elva travel to Sportland Arena in the Esiliiga A on Thursday 23 April (16:00 WAT) to face Flora II. Flora II are 5th with 52 points from 35 games (in the top half), while Elva sit 4th on 55 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Flora II's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Tallinna Kalev 4–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Elva's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Nõmme United II 1–3 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.2 for Flora II and 1.4 for Elva. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Flora II 61%, draw 13%, Elva 26%.
Value angle: Flora II to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Flora II 2–1 Elva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flora II61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw13%fair 7.74 · @4.00
Elva26%fair 3.80 · @3.00
3.62Expected goals
2.25Flora II xG
1.37Elva xG
55%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Flora II 2.2 – 1.4 Elva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flora II to win✓
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Flora II ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flora II / FT Flora II✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.77
–
Form
Flora II – last 6
WWWWLD
16 Apr
@ Tallinna Kalev
4–1
W
10 Apr
vs FC Tallinn
5–0
W
5 Apr
@ FCI Levadia II
3–1
W
19 Mar
vs Nõmme Kalju II
3–1
W
6 Mar
@ Viimsi
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Maardu
0–0
D
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Elva – last 5
LLWWW
19 Apr
vs Nõmme United II
1–3
L
9 Apr
@ Tallinna Kalev
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Viimsi
1–0
W
21 Mar
vs FCI Levadia II
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ Maardu
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flora II and Elva.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Flora II vs Elva?
On our numbers Flora II have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Elva 26%.
How many goals will there be in Flora II vs Elva?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flora II vs Elva?
Our predicted score is Flora II 2–1 Elva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Flora II vs Elva?
Flora II vs Elva (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportland Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
