Independiente del Valle vs Libertad prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✗71% · @1.30
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✗91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.16
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
Independiente del Valle host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Saturday 23 May, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84 points from 35 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points. A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Libertad Asuncion 4–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Libertad's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Independiente del Valle and 0.7 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 71%, draw 20%, Libertad 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle71%fair 1.41 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @5.10
Libertad9%fair 10.69 · @9.40
2.79Expected goals
2.13Independiente del Valle xG
0.66Libertad xG
50%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.7 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
71%
1.41
1.30
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✗
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.55
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
47%
2.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.16
–
Form
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWLWW
20 May
vs Libertad Asuncion
4–1
W
13 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–0
W
10 May
vs Barcelona SC
1–0
W
6 May
@ UCV
0–2
L
1 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–2
W
28 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
LWLLDD
16 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Libertad 9%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
