Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Emelec to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmelec to win ✓61% · @1.73
Double chanceEmelec or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.64
Emelec vs Macara preview and prediction
The match
Emelec host Macara in the Liga Pro on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 21:30 (WAT) at Estadio George Capwell. Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 games, while Macara sit 2nd on 67 points. A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Emelec's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Manta FC 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Macara's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Alianza Atletico 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Macara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Emelec and 0.6 for Macara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emelec 61%, draw 23%, Macara 15%.
Safer route: Emelec or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Emelec to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Emelec 1–0 Macara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emelec61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.50
Macara15%fair 6.50 · @4.85
2.18Expected goals
1.56Emelec xG
0.61Macara xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.6 – 0.6 Macara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Emelec to win✓
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Emelec or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Emelec / FT Emelec✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.64
–
Form
Emelec – last 6
DLWWLL
18 May
@ Manta FC
0–0
D
3 May
@ Leones del Norte
0–2
L
25 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Macara – last 6
DWDWLW
22 May
vs Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
11 May
@ Manta FC
1–0
W
7 May
vs Tigre
2–2
D
1 May
@ Alianza Atletico
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
0–4
L
20 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and Macara.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Emelec vs Macara?
On our numbers Emelec have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Macara 15%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Macara?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Macara?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–0 Macara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Macara?
Emelec vs Macara (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
