Aucas vs Universidad Catolica prediction & analysis
74%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.33
8/10Rating
1.33Odds
2
Value bet: Universidad Catolica to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAucas to win39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 9.60
Aucas vs Universidad Catolica preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Aucas take on Universidad Catolica on Saturday 9 May, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda. Aucas are 5th with 54 points from 36 games, while Universidad Catolica sit 3rd on 54 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Aucas's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Libertad 2–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Universidad Catolica's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 2–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Aucas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Aucas and 1.2 for Universidad Catolica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aucas 39%, draw 23%, Universidad Catolica 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Universidad Catolica to win at 2.88 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Aucas 1–1 Universidad Catolica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aucas39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Universidad Catolica39%fair 2.59 · @2.88
2.48Expected goals
1.24Aucas xG
1.24Universidad Catolica xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.2 – 1.2 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win
39%
2.59
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aucas / FT Aucas
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
9.60
–
Form
Aucas – last 6
LWDWWW
2 May
@ Libertad
2–3
L
28 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Leones del Norte
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LLWDWD
1 May
vs Independiente del Valle
2–3
L
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
24 Apr
vs Macara
4–0
W
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aucas and Universidad Catolica.
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Aucas have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Universidad Catolica 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Aucas vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
