The Liga Pro sees Libertad take on Aucas on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Aucas sit 5th on 54 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Guayaquil City FC 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Aucas's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Delfin SC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aucas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Libertad and 1.4 for Aucas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 28%, draw 21%, Aucas 52%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Libertad 0–1 Aucas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad28%fair 3.61 · @3.65
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Aucas52%fair 1.94 · @1.97
2.24Expected goals
0.88Libertad xG
1.36Aucas xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Libertad 0.9 – 1.4 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win✗
52%
1.94
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aucas / FT Aucas✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.90
–
Form
Libertad – last 6
LLDDLW
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 6
WDWWWW
28 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Leones del Norte
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Aucas.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Libertad vs Aucas?
On our numbers Libertad have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aucas 52%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is Libertad 0–1 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Aucas?
Libertad vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
