Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte prediction & analysis
73%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.36
8/10Rating
1.36Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win69% · @1.22
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016% · fair 6.35
Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Independiente del Valle take on Leones del Norte on Saturday 25 April, kicking off at 20:10 (WAT) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84 points from 35 games, while Leones del Norte sit 9th on 47 points. A gap of 37 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Delfin SC 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leones del Norte's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Manta FC 3–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Independiente del Valle and 0.6 for Leones del Norte. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 46%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 69%, draw 17%, Leones del Norte 13%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Leones del Norte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle69%fair 1.44 · @1.22
Draw17%fair 5.78 · @5.25
Leones del Norte13%fair 7.51 · @16.50
2.47Expected goals
1.86Independiente del Valle xG
0.61Leones del Norte xG
46%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–110%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.9 – 0.6 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
69%
1.44
1.22
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
87%
1.15
1.03
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.85
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.36
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
16%
6.35
–
Form
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Leones del Norte – last 6
WLLWDL
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Leones del Norte.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Leones del Norte 13%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 20:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
