Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: LDU de Quito to win @ 3.05 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗40% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Emelec vs LDU de Quito preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Emelec take on LDU de Quito on Saturday 25 April, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio George Capwell. Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 games, while LDU de Quito sit 4th on 54 points.
Form guide
Emelec's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Tecnico Universitario 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
LDU de Quito's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Aucas 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
LDU de Quito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Emelec and 1.1 for LDU de Quito. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emelec 35%, draw 24%, LDU de Quito 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: LDU de Quito to win at 3.05 – 40% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Emelec 1–1 LDU de Quito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emelec35%fair 2.83 · @2.34
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
LDU de Quito40%fair 2.47 · @3.05
2.15Expected goals
1.03Emelec xG
1.13LDU de Quito xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.0 – 1.1 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
LDU de Quito to win✗
40%
2.47
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito✗
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.64
–
Form
Emelec – last 6
WLLDLL
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–2
L
23 Mar
@ Mushuc Runa SC
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 6
DWLWLW
23 Apr
vs Aucas
0–0
D
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and LDU de Quito.
What is the prediction for Emelec vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Emelec vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Emelec have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and LDU de Quito 40%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–1 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs LDU de Quito?
Emelec vs LDU de Quito (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
