Universidad Catolica vs Libertad prediction & analysis
70%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.48
7/10Rating
1.48Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win70% · @1.32
Double chanceUniversidad Catolica or draw90% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016% · fair 6.37
Universidad Catolica vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
Universidad Catolica host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Saturday 18 April, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Universidad Catolica's last 4: DWDL Most recently they drew with Emelec 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Libertad's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Orense SC 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Universidad Catolica and 0.6 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Universidad Catolica 70%, draw 20%, Libertad 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Universidad Catolica 1–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Universidad Catolica70%fair 1.42 · @1.32
Draw20%fair 5.07 · @4.85
Libertad10%fair 10.02 · @9.40
2.52Expected goals
1.95Universidad Catolica xG
0.57Libertad xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Universidad Catolica 1.9 – 0.6 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win
70%
1.42
1.32
Double chance
Universidad Catolica or draw
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.94
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.48
Half-time result
Universidad Catolica ahead at half-time
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
16%
6.37
–
Form
Universidad Catolica – last 4
DWDL
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Juventud
3–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
LDDLWL
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universidad Catolica and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
On our numbers Universidad Catolica have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Libertad 10%.
How many goals will there be in Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Universidad Catolica 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Universidad Catolica vs Libertad?
Universidad Catolica vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
