Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Emelec to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmelec to win ✗61% · @1.80
Double chanceEmelec or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.49
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Emelec take on Guayaquil City FC on Saturday 18 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio George Capwell. Emelec are 10th with 45 points from 36 games, while Guayaquil City FC sit 8th on 48 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Emelec's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Aucas 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Guayaquil City FC's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with Leones del Norte 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Emelec and 0.6 for Guayaquil City FC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emelec 61%, draw 25%, Guayaquil City FC 14%.
Safer route: Emelec or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Emelec to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Emelec or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Emelec 1–0 Guayaquil City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emelec61%fair 1.65 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.45
Guayaquil City FC14%fair 7.02 · @4.40
2.14Expected goals
1.54Emelec xG
0.59Guayaquil City FC xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.5 – 0.6 Guayaquil City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Emelec to win✗
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Emelec or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.24
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Emelec / FT Emelec✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.49
–
Form
Emelec – last 6
LDLLWD
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–2
L
23 Mar
@ Mushuc Runa SC
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Independiente del Valle
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Delfin SC
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Guayaquil City FC – last 5
DWDLL
23 Mar
vs Leones del Norte
0–0
D
18 Mar
@ Manta FC
1–0
W
16 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
7 Mar
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
23 Feb
@ Independiente del Valle
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and Guayaquil City FC.
What is the prediction for Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our pick is Emelec or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC?
On our numbers Emelec have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Guayaquil City FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–0 Guayaquil City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC?
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
