Value bet: Libertad to win @ 3.65 – our chance 35% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOrense SC to win ✓44% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.38
Orense SC vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Orense SC take on Libertad on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estadio 9 de Mayo. Orense SC are 13th with 39 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points. A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Orense SC's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Aucas 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Libertad's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Mushuc Runa SC 2–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Orense SC and 1.2 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Libertad to win at 3.65 – 35% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Orense SC 1–1 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orense SC44%fair 2.27 · @1.97
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Libertad35%fair 2.85 · @3.65
2.56Expected goals
1.37Orense SC xG
1.18Libertad xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Orense SC 1.4 – 1.2 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orense SC to win✓
44%
2.27
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orense SC / FT Orense SC✓
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.38
–
Form
Orense SC – last 6
LWDLDL
24 Mar
@ Aucas
2–3
L
19 Mar
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–2
W
10 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Macara
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs LDU de Quito
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
DDLWLW
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orense SC and Libertad.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Orense SC vs Libertad?
On our numbers Orense SC have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Libertad 35%.
How many goals will there be in Orense SC vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orense SC vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Orense SC 1–1 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Orense SC vs Libertad?
Orense SC vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 9 de Mayo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
