Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso prediction & analysis
76%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.42
8/10Rating
1.42Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 55% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultProgreso to win37% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score64% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.21
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso preview and prediction
The match
Progreso travel to face Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 14 February (21:00 WAT). Deportivo Maldonado are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Progreso sit 7th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.7 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.7 for Progreso. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 55% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.42, above our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Progreso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Maldonado37%fair 2.70 · @2.52
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @2.98
Progreso37%fair 2.67 · @2.80
3.44Expected goals
1.71Deportivo Maldonado xG
1.72Progreso xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 – 1.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win
37%
2.67
2.80
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.42 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
37%
2.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.21
–
Form
Deportivo Maldonado
No recent results on record.
Progreso
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Progreso 37%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
